Evaluating and forecasting conventional gasoline price fluctuations using Garch models with two distributions and machine learning methods

Authors

  • Reza Roshanpour * Departmant of Management, Economics and Progress Engineering, Iran University Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
  • Mohammadreza Parsanejad Departmant of Management, Economics and Progress Engineering, Iran University Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
  • Sorya Asgari Department of Accounting, Economic and Accounting Faculty, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
  • Fatemeh Hashtroodi Mahmoodi Department of Accounting, Economic and Accounting Faculty, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22105/tqfb.v2i1.48

Abstract

Conventional gasoline price can affect the government and society as a strategic commodity in the community. Conventional gasoline price fluctuations have economic, political, social, cultural, and environmental effects. Thus, the prediction of its volatility is essential but there is not any study to examine the price fluctuations. This study aims to hybridize and propose different Garch models based on two distributions and various algorithms in machine learning, such as random forest, ridge regression, support vector regression (SVR), and elastic-net for predicting weekly gasoline price volatility. The results depict Garch and GJRgarch models based on t-student distribution can predict volatility. The combination of ridge regression and GJRgarch model can better predict volatility for the seven-step-ahead. The RMSE scale has been used to compare results that the scale value is 0.01475 in the hybrid method. In fact, combining the ridge regression with t-student-GJRgarch model has the slightest error prediction or the most accuracy among different Garch models and machine learning algorithms.  

Keywords:

Garch models, Machine learning, Gasoline price, Volatility, Distribution

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Published

2024-03-04

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 1 (2025): Transactions on Quantitative Finance and Beyond

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Articles

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How to Cite

Roshanpour, R., Parsanejad, M., Asgari, S., & Hashtroodi Mahmoodi, F. (2024). Evaluating and forecasting conventional gasoline price fluctuations using Garch models with two distributions and machine learning methods. Transactions on Quantitative Finance and Beyond, 2(1), 30-42. https://doi.org/10.22105/tqfb.v2i1.48
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